Summary

The Turkish military has shot down a Russian Su-24 operating in Syria. The incident took place near the Syria-Turkey border, and the plane was apparently brought down by a Turkish F-16 on patrol. The pilots of the Russian plane managed to eject, but there are conflicting reports as to their fate. Early reports indicated that both were shot and killed mid-air by Turkmen militias operating in the area, but Turkish officials have stated that both pilots are alive and being held prisoner.

Russia President Vladimir Putin has reacted angrily to the incident, maintaining that the Russian jet was still over Syrian airspace and characterizing the incident as a “stab in the back by the associates of terrorism.”

The Turkish authorities assert that the Russian pilots were warned over ten times before being fired upon, and Ankara has recently cautioned the Russians over getting involved in fighting between the Syrian government and ethnic Turkmen forces near the Syria-Turkey border. According to an unnamed US official cited by the Daily Beast, the Turkish government did not provide any warning to NATO before shooting down the plane.

Impact

This is a dangerous situation that hearkens back to the East-West standoffs of the Cold War. Many feared this could occur in a Syrian theater packed with competing militaries, interests, and loyalties, but the surprise is that it came so soon and so brazen. There’s an element of unapologetic defiance from the Turkish side that lends itself to further escalation. In a way, this will be a test for just how far President Putin is willing to take his newly assertive foreign policy. There had been no shortage of dovish overtures from Moscow towards the West over the past few weeks, but this setback will be hard to ignore.