Summary

The new Boris Johnson-led government in the United Kingdom has adopted a tough negotiating line out of the gates. In the words of Michael Gove, it’s ‘operating under the assumption of a hard Brexit.’ And Prime Minister Johnson has ruled out any new talks with the European Union so long as Brussels refuses to ditch the previously agreed-upon backstop deal.

So basically: no talks at all.

The initial Johnson strategy seems designed to fail on producing a deal. And though the premier’s tone might change after an expected snap election in autumn, it’s clear that a no-deal divorce is far more possible than it was under Theresa May.

Impact

Here are the economic, diplomatic, and political considerations to bear in mind should a hard Brexit come to pass: