The GPM Global Forecast is a bi-weekly, members-only article series for 2017. It provides analysis and short-term forecasting on key military, political, and economic events around the globe.

Stability Continues to Elude Theresa May

We’re entering a big week for the United Kingdom in both the economic and political arenas.

The Conservative party conference is currently being held in Manchester, and its producing a number of uncomfortable questions about the future of Prime Minister Theresa May. The main culprit is May’s own foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, who has doubled down on his hard Brexit line such that his public statements are starting to veer from the path of Prime Minister May’s dovish turn post-Florence speech. Boris’ public display of defiance has opened the door to a possible leadership challenge, and the contenders are already vying to replace May, who has been vulnerable since her failed election gambit earlier in the year. Some possible challengers are Boris Johnson, former leadership candidate Andrea Leadsom, Philip Hammond, and Amber Rudd.