Summary

The Russian rouble briefly hit a two-year low of 69.64 against the US dollar on Friday, before bouncing back to recover 0.5%. Though still far from the post-Crimea low of 82.45, recent declines reveal a vulnerability to new sanctions and the same kind of capital flight that is fueling currency routs in Turkey, India, and Argentina.

Where does the Russian economy go from here? It will be a question of politics, both in Western capitals where sanctions may soon be toughened even further following Theresa May’s recent Skripal revelations, and in Moscow where the Putin administration will be forced to choose between growth and stability.